Halloween is Shaken, Read this in the dark

I started writing a warning to send and in the process remembered something I saw on the Science Channel regarding the discovery of earthquake storms or swarms. This phenomenon was observed on a major fault in Northern Turkey in which several devastating earthquakes have occurred in recent years and someone with their head screw on saw a pattern and actually predicated an earthquake. I did not keep a video of this, which I’m sorry now, since details could be valuable.

I believe he wrote a paper, and was either ignored or trashed, you know the scenario someone has an idea, like plate tectonics which was once considered outside the norm of geologic sensibility, and then something proves the theory correct. He went so far I believe as to write a computer program that not only matched what had occurred but then predicted. He was proven correct in a very unhappy way. That's a Halloween mutilated memory of it except that it is considered science now, which is earthquake swarms or storms are real. Istanbul is next in line based on computer simulations etc., and of course he’s taken seriously now.

So for some time I’ve been pouring over this data below and not able to make heads or tails out of it cause it seemed as if maybe all these little earthquakes were good and meant we wouldn’t have a big one. Every time I felt ok about that an earthquake would shake me awake and then again I’m sure we’re getting close, but to what?

But as Steven and I said on an August night in 1989, it is time to batten down the hatches, or water heater, and have some candles. A tad short of what we know now. So first is the original information that has had me puzzled for some time, how did all this fit together, what if anything did mean?

1. While heavy instrumentation was set up to capture the supposed regular quake at Parkfield, every 11 years, if you remember, it didn't perform on its regular interval. That is until after Paso went.
   
   
2. After LP in 89, when the Chronicle started running the Friday earthquake report up until about the time of Paso, the average number of reported quakes was between single digits to <50. After Paso, that number jumped to between 50 and <100 weekly. Since, the OAKLAND tremors, it jumped again to average between 100 and 150, with it rarely being below 135 for some time now.
   
   
3. Supposedly there has always been symmetry between the two faults in any given large quake event. In other words, in the past if the Hayward went, then the San Andreas did so and visa versa. My memory is that it should have been six years or maybe less than three years from the main event, something that has not occurred, which I know since Steven and I watched for this event intensely and to our utter disbelief, it was so very, very quiet. We have not had the symmetry event, if past data for the years that have been highly studied holds true, then we may finally be heading for that event.
   
   
4. The Chronicle indicated the Hayward fault as having more strain placed upon it, otherwise it would be the Calaveras, which I consider as close as we'll get to the USGS to yell panic.
   

So that’s the, not necessarily mismatched data, but still worse than fuzzy math that I’ve been trying to make sense of for some time. Then writing about it today, I suddenly remembered the swarms or storms, and while this might require its own computer program, it was like suddenly the pieces fit. Now, let’s review with this idea in mind. Oh, and storms or swarms are basically earthquakes that essentially trigger earthquakes along a fault much as you might think if you were looking at the whole set, after the damage has all been done.

Paso Robles gets the ball rolling and is fairly devastating and actually occurred on the coast, directly west, was barely felt in San Luis Obispo.

Finally, after years of installing expensive instrumentation, Parkfield, now quite a few years off from its 11 year cycle goes, much joy and excitement throughout the seismologist world.

Keeping an eye on the papers Friday earthquake report notes the number of average quakes goes up after Paso Robles, and / or Parkfield. More and more quakes, small are felt, and then suddenly a number of small deep quakes occur in almost the same spot in Oakland, two that were like a month apart or something like that, no a week, exactly the same depth. To my memory, during this time period, it seems as if I can’t remember a lot of quakes on the Hayward, certainly they don’t increase like they are on the San Andreas. Jim notes increasing activity in the form of small quakes after the Oakland event which increase from 50 to 100, to 100 and 150 average weekly.

Finally in the summer of 2007, in looking intensely at the Friday earthquake map, there’s now more small earthquakes between Parkfield and where the Calaveras splits off, there are now some at Loma Preita, small, but that seems important.

I privately, or maybe shared with a couple of others that I felt there would be an earthquake either at that juncture or at the point where buried by sediments, the Hayward has to split cause like there’s rock and then it emerges, there are also a number of quakes at this junction, small. But I finally think if we are going to have a earthquake it’s going to be a big one there, or on the Hayward.

My private prediction comes true, not small, doesn’t seem like a precursor event, but the storm should tell us now. There will either be allot of aftershocks for a small quake and perhaps a lot more little ones between the Calaveras split and the Alum Rock event, which appears to be on the unseen, sediment hidden start of the Hayward.

However, the quakes are speeding up so to speak. And because of previously mentioned reasons, besides the fact the Hayward is stuck, except in those couple of places where suddenly in the last year we’ve had quakes, that the next logical jump is that point, which initially I thought might then be a nasty 6.7 to 6.9.

If that are larger, then the storm should be over. However I remember reading about how long its been since the Rogers Creek Fault went, which devastated Santa Rosa before 1906 and suddenly realized that if this is a storm, then the Hayward event may be milder than “the big one” and everyone believes we get off pretty easy, except it keeps going, in a similar pattern ending a 7.9 or higher in Santa Rosa.

Looking back at the October record of weekly events, they are all centered between the Pinnacles and the Calaveras split, lots!

Anyway, suddenly there’s an overlay in which to evaluate these events, they no longer seem so random, at least to me and I’m sorry if I’ve not explained this well, But I’ve written this in one day.

Therefore my forecast is that if this is a storm like event, then Hayward fault is ready and will probably go at the point at which there have already been some events, in less than six months. If it is continues, then it might end in a huge Santa Rosa event. The other possibility due to the length of time since Rogers Creek and Hayward Faults, which are now considered a whole branch could rip and go north and south of those points already noted, which is a scary, put your head between your butt and kiss your ass goodbye.

While I realize this is armchair science, especially without Steven's statistical data and collaboration, and it was clear that the August event was a precursor in 1989, and we both just intuitively knew it. These events have been building and are much more difficult to discern direction or whether they just represented the slow release of energy, until I thought of the swarm or storm concept, which this seems to be following m my memory of that type of pattern.

However, while I did not stick my neck out this last time, although I was highly anticipating a major event either here, unless the strain was really getting ready to rock and roll and just have the Hayward rip. The storm concept, which provides a paradigm for finally having perspective on these events, might now lend a few clues.

Thus we would see a somewhat similar repeat of what has gone on continue until there's a about a 7.9 like that which devastated the place prior to 1906. Or it just may stop in Oakland with a 6.5 or 6.7, which is going to be tad bit nastier.

Either way, I no longer believe this is some slow release of strain, but in fact the opposite and it would suggest one way or another the next major stop will be on the Hayward.

Therefore, it is time to start some serious earthquake preparations, with one or two people outside of the Bay Area, such as my brother and or Wendy as contact points that we can reach and depending on who has what standing how we might meet and salvage resources from damaged places.

This also a time to start contacting the neighborhood groups that are suppose to coordinate in the events so we know who and where they are and as a building we should try and do what we can to ensure that everyone is safe if possible, especially if the building is deemed unhabitable.

Are you ready to DUCK AND COVER, OR BE THROWN OUT OF BUILDINGS, oh my, we certainly aren't in Kasas any more Toto.